BASRA, IRAN... IT ALL COMES DOWN TO OIL

progressive

(Sun, 11 May 2008 14:09:40 -0500 (CDT)) ---
www.thefirstpost.co.uk

The First Post FIRST POSTED MAY 11, 2008

Recent violence is a precursor to the political break-up of the nation,
says Robert Fox

Behind the recent fighting in Basra, which has halted the further
withdrawal of British troops from Iraq, lies a three-letter word - oil. It
is no coincidence that the day Iraq's prime minister Nouri al-Maliki
ordered the Iraqi army into Basra to fight the militia of Moqtada al-Sadr,
negotiations began in Jordan for contracts to repair and upgrade existing
oil fields around Basra and exploit three huge new fields in the desert
further west.

These deals with multinational companies could triple the output from the
Basra oil region, already one of the richest in the world. Who controls
Basra controls much of the future wealth of Iraq and the upper Gulf.

Al-Maliki belongs to the Dawa Party, the smallest of the three major Shia
political movements in Iraq, whose influence across the oil-rich south has
been steadily waning.

Last month he gambled that Iraqi army units, newly trained by the US and
UK, could beat the Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr.

Under the pretext of "winning back the streets of Basra from the militias
and criminal gangs," al-Maliki launched a force of some 30,000 to dislodge
Moqtada's men from their strongholds in Basra, Amarah and Kut. After six
days of heavy street-fighting, the Iraqi army made no headway. Moqtada's
men have won an enormous psychological victory that they did not expect.
The Mahdi Army now looks like the strongest Iraqi force in central and
southern Iraq, more capable than the Iraqi army itself.

Al-Maliki, described recently by a British military adviser as having
"almost no strategic judgment", was urged to action by American neo-con
militants like retired General Jack Keane and Fred Kagan of the American
Enterprise Institute. But American and British commanders urged caution,
believing the Iraqi army wasn't yet up to the job. So al-Maliki told
allied commanders of his plan to put troops into Basra only Nouri
al-Maliki launched a force of 30,000 men to dislodge Moqtada's men from
their strongholds a few hours before they went in.

Al-Maliki clearly fears that Moqtada will win the provincial elections due
later this year - and that they will deliver him real power over Basra and
its oil.

What concerns al-Maliki and the US neo-cons is Moqtada's interpretation of
Iraq's new oil law - which they believe is likely to favour Tehran rather
than Baghdad in the commercial development of common fields and common
pipelines. The law is deliberately ambiguous about exploitation of fields
which run across national boundaries. The oil minister, Hussein
Shahrastani, whose ancestry is from Iran, has kept silent about what
happens to oil fields that extend into Iran - where there are already
accusations of the Iranians pumping oil from under Iraq.

The American hawks under Dick Cheney fear that Moqtada's propaganda win in
Basra will be linked to Iran's recent successes in energy politics.

A further blow to the White House policy of isolating Iran by sanctions
was a deal struck by the Swiss last month to buy 194trillion cubic feet of
gas from Iran annually from 2011. It was sealed at a ceremony in Tehran
where Micheline Calmy-Rey, the Swiss foreign minister, was photographed
shrouded in a headscarf, smiling and shaking the hand of President
Ahmadinejad.

Ironically, the Americans' favourite Shia leader, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim,
would likely be no less pro-Iranian than Moqtada when it comes to oil.
Al-Hakim wants to see Iraq become a loose federation, with Basra at the
centre of a southern super-region. In Tehran, that is seen as an
opportunity for closer ties, possibly even the use of Iranian pipelines
and ports to transport Iraqi oil.

So the oil card is slipping from Washington's hand, thanks to the
misjudgment of al-Maliki in attacking Moqtada's militias. In the dying
days of the Bush regime, fears are growing again that if the America can't
win the oil contest, it will resort to force - even the bombing of Iran.
At least the main regional leaders, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have
told Dick Cheney they won't go along with such a suicidal move.

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